When JFK launched the Apollo Project to put a man on the moon, he initiated not just an international space race, but the development of a range of new technologies that have revolutionised daily life. Research in NASA laboratories developed technologies that gave us everything from specialty coated plastics to freeze-dried food, cordless power tools, modern textiles and sports equipment, electronic communication equipment, pacemakers and digital imaging techniques. Now that the space frontier has been successfully opened up and national budgets for continued research are shrinking, the flood of truly innovative technologies from space labs has become a trickle. At the same time, consumers have become addicted to the promise of the ‘new’ in their lives and manufacturers are engaged in a technology race of their own to satisfy that need.
It is estimated that consumers in the US replace their mobile phones on average every 18 months, while those in Europe buy new phones every 15 months and in Japan the average is nine months. Digital cameras are replaced every two to three years, and the recommended replacement cycle for a personal computer is three to four years. What are the technological innovations supporting this rapid product replacement, and can the manufacturers keep up the pace of development?
The cost of keeping up
Data presented at a recent Accenture seminar on “Consumer Trends in Technology” highlights the challenge for manufacturers: corporate spending on IT hardware is declining while consumer spending, particularly in developing markets, is growing. Internet connected smartphones, introduced in 2001, have moved from the early adopter stage to making up the majority of mobile phone purchases in record time, and the more recently introduced tablet devices are already threatening sales of personal computers.
For cynics who believe it is testosterone-fuelled marketing executives who are driving the relentless race to introduce more gadgets, consider Accenture’s observation that “owning electronic brands perceived as the most innovative is important to the majority of consumers, and even more so in BRIC countries”. The cult of the Apple brand and that corporation’s seeming arrogance in bypassing the industry’s flagship annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES) demonstrates just how powerful this perception can be.
Underpinning the gadget race is the parallel constant improvement in communications infrastructure (e.g. faster broadband and cheaper digital storage facilities) and the relentless development of ‘cool apps’ by enthusiastic software geeks, both of which fuel demand for ever faster connectivity and greater functionality. The stakes in the technology race are high – brands that successfully create a stream of commercial innovations have access to a huge global market. Market research firm, RNCOS, estimates revenues for the consumer electronics industry reached $694bn in 2008, and forecasts a compound annual growth rate of around five percent until at least 2013.
For those who don’t keep up with the technology race, consumer ambivalence will take its toll. According to business consultants AlixPartners, the recent combination of weak demand and fierce competition has put 87 percent of consumer electronics firms in danger of default or bankruptcy. Karl Roberts, Managing Director at AlixPartners, said, “More than just about any other industry, much of high-tech faces a vicious cycle of the constant need to invest capital to drive product innovation and differentiation, and to keep up with the pace of new technology.”
The ubiquitous chip
To most people, consumer electronics means digital cameras, televisions, computers and mobile phones, but the truth is that electronics have become a key element in virtually every powered device we use, from dishwashers to heart monitors and even many pre-school toys. Manufacturers of the most basic electrical devices are now under pressure to increase functionality as new capabilities become available.
In the home, our televisions will probably see the most innovation over the next two to three years, with 3D and holographic displays being perfected in laboratories, and internet streaming capabilities, either through cable or wi-fi connection, becoming the norm. Enhanced display features in our televisions mean that the flat, two dimensional images taken by camcorders will be ‘so last year’, and sure enough, JVC has recently announced the first consumer full high definition 3D camcorder.
Electronic chips in home appliances such as washing machines, clothes dryers and heating systems are enabling greater control over energy consumption, while manufacturers of refrigerators are working hard to develop intelligent appliances that manage our food supplies and automatically re-order staple items from our favourite supermarket. In the future, we will be able to turn on the air conditioning, heating and cooking devices in our homes from anywhere in the world using our mobile phones or tablet devices.
Innovation in the office is not restricted to mobile phones and tablets. In addition to carrying full 3D presentations and all supporting documentation on a hard drive that fits in a pocket, business executives can now carry the means to show that presentation to a full boardroom with 3M’s handy Pocket Projector in their other pocket. Of course, wireless technology means that any of the documents being discussed at the meeting can be instantly transferred from the presenter’s device to the laptops or tablets of her audience.
A Fitness first
In the transportation industry, the race is on to provide new products that will enhance the driving experience and make it inherently safer. Satellite navigation systems, famous for taking many drivers miles out of their way in the early days, are now able to combine live traffic information with automatic re-routing directions gleaned from volume measuring loops built into road surfaces. Toyota has now brought out a rechargeable version of its popular hybrid (petrol/electric) Prius model, first introduced in 1997, and several car manufacturers have begun to introduce self-parking and automatic braking systems based on remote sensors and robotics.
Although many people still consider robotics to be the fantasy of mad scientists in obscure laboratories, the technologies that have been developed over the past ten years are slowly but surely making their way into the consumer realm and competition is heating up amongst manufacturers. Many of the gadgets based on robotics technology are currently in the cuddly toy category, but there are viable products on the market today that will automatically clean your floors or swimming pool, wash your hair, and respond to simple commands to fetch and carry items in the home.
On the more frivolous side, Robo Thespian, a humanoid robot, will stand and recite Shakespeare to you, complete with extravagant theatrical actions, for a mere $88,000. Make no mistake, however; there is generally a more serious application lurking behind the attention grabbers. An alarm clock on display at the CeBIT show in Hanover this year wakes you progressively by opening the curtains, turning on lights, switching on the radio and eventually sounding an intrusive alarm until you deactivate it by standing on a sensor pad by your bedside. Similar systems are being considered for use in the homes of vulnerable people to detect if they are getting up safely each morning.
Healthcare and the care of the elderly are two areas that stand to reap the greatest benefit from many of the latest technology developments. From the precision of robotic surgical devices to heart rate monitors built in to the driver’s seat of a car and toothbrushes with built-in cameras to show where there are plaque deposits, these revolutionary systems make it easier to monitor, maintain and repair our bodies. Frauenhofer Institute has recently introduced its Fitness Assistant tracksuit, which comprises a sensor suit capable of gathering information on the wearer’s body movements, a t-shirt for respiratory measurement and a PDA-based user interface which encourages the wearer to keep fit through regular and rehabilitative exercise. For the younger and keener fitness fanatic, there is a breath analyser that will tell you how hungry you are and whether your body is in a good state to burn fat if you exercise immediately.
The Holy Grail
Most analysts believe that the next wave of technology development will see greater integration between all of these systems. Already we have products like Panasonic’s new robotic bed, which combines the functionality of a bed with a wheelchair capable of navigating the home and connecting to the home network. Soon, this type of product will also be able to take an active role in managing health by measuring vital statistics and transmitting them automatically with a remote monitoring station that can call up the patient on a VoIP connection to discuss any problems.
In the home of the future, sensors on the walls will detect the resident’s mood, adjusting features like lighting and music to suit, and instructing the refrigerator to order up the appropriate food. All of this will require a central control unit, taking the management role once filled by the home owner himself. Analysts at Gartner are predicting that the tablet will become the ‘brain’ that links everything together by docking with various resident devices wherever we go.
If the goal of consumers is total mobility, something is going to have to be done about the umbilical cord known as the power cable. Although considerable research is going into reducing the power consumption of electronic devices, they still need to be recharged and that involves plugging them in to a wall connected socket. Or does it? In 2008 the Wireless Power Consortium was established to create an international standard for interoperable wireless charging. Although many device manufacturers have used proprietary charging devices as a way of locking consumers into their product line, the industry now seems to have accepted the inevitability of wireless and the need for standardisation. Members of the Wireless Power Consortium include consumer electronics giants such as Philips, Samsung, Nokia and Texas Instruments.
The potential of wireless charging was clearly demonstrated at CES this year by eCoupled, a company pioneering its ‘intelligent wireless control system’ that not only provides a power source embedded in tables and counters, but also communicates with each device to determine the age and condition of its battery so the correct amount of power can be delivered safely and efficiently. Once these wireless power systems are embedded into our homes, offices, cafes and transportation systems, our electronic devices will become truly mobile – if we have bought the latest mobile devices that are equipped for wireless charging.
Although hardware innovation will focus on wireless charging over the next couple of years, smartphone manufacturers will continue to introduce as many new features and models as they can dream up to try to capture as large a share of the market as possible. The new prize in the mobile telecommunication industry will be about monetising service innovations – turning your customer community into revenue streams beyond the one-off purchase of the device. That means we will see more must-have service offerings along the lines of e-payments, cloud services and security features. And remember, it will all be possible because the smartphone in your pocket today has more memory on board than the NASA computer that put the first man on the moon.